Predictions and Tips for the New Year
It’s still time when lots of people are caught up in making resolutions, predictions, and plans for the new year. Browsing around this morning I came across several articles along those lines that kept my attention. Here are two I believe are worth sharing for a quick read. Please remember that I consider all articles of basic advice and opinion the same as any other educational opinion piece. They have value in expanding your view and prompting new thinking. My advice is to use anything like that, including my posts, as only that when you see it. If it has real value to you then you keep it and go back to it, otherwise move on and keep learning.
This article gives some predictions about economic growth for the year and a bit of insight into why those predictions are made. It covers U.S. stock markets and housing. My predictions are as follows: U.S. stocks SP500 will be up roughly 7.5%, overall housing will be up 2.5%. I predict that there will be different rates within market segments and geographic regions. I predict that my predictions will be no better or worse than others, and that some unforeseen factors will pop up and make some people look like geniuses and others look like fools.
My predictions are what I base my decisions on, but I update my view and make new predictions based on new information as it becomes available, which is very frequently. My predictions and views tend to be relatively near term. For our retirement investments I stick to broad funds using a lazy/indexed style of investing. Big SP500 and other funds have a good bit of exposure to financials, pharmaceuticals, and global markets. My prediction for my investing is that we will do fairly well keeping up with retirement contributions and returns, but not have enough “play” investment money to take the risks of aggressive short term investments for other goals.
After looking at some predictions, this tip is simple but powerful. Part of 10 tips for better investing, number 5 on their list is “Know what you don’t know.” It really ties in to what I believe is important. In my first draft of my Keys to Success with Finances I listed build understanding as number 1, know the risks as number 4, and get help when you should as number 5. All 3 of those are related to your knowledge and understanding.